Session Summary

Session Number:647
Session ID:S739
Session Title:Positive Expectancies, Illusions of Control, and Overconfidence as Influences on Performance
Short Title:Expectancies and Illusions
Session Type:Division Paper
Hotel:Hyatt West
Floor:LL1
Room:Picasso
Time:Monday, August 09, 1999 12:20 PM - 2:10 PM

Sponsors

MOC  (Kathleen Sutcliffe)ksutclif@umich.edu (734) 764-2312 

General People

Chair Thompson, Karen  State U. of New York at Buffalo kjt3@acsu.buffalo.edu (716) 637-6376 
Discussant Glynn, Mary Ann  Emory U. unknown@emory.edu (555) 555-5555 

Submissions

The influence of positive-affect on expectancy motivation: Integrating affect and cognition into motivation theories 
 Erez, Amir  U. of Florida ereza@dale.cba.ufl.edu (325) 392-3716 
 Isen, Alice M. Cornell U. AMI4@Cornell.edu (607) 255-4687 
 Purdy, Christopher P. U. of Florida crpurdy@ix.netcom.com (352)-392-5883 
 This study integrates affect and cognition into a motivation framework by empirically investigating the impact of positive-affect on expectancy theory. The influence of positive-affect on expectancy motivation was explored using two studies that employed two tasks differing in complexity, and involved two different contexts: performance and decision making. Preliminary results show that subjects induced by the positive-affect manipulation were more motivated to perform the tasks than controls. The process by which positive- affect influenced this motivation to perform was explored using hierarchical linear modling. The ruslts of this analysis suggest that positive-affect influenced motivation through its effect on individuals' perceptions of expectancy, instrumentality and valence. Thus, the combined results of study 1 and 2 show that positive- affect influences motivation to perform through its influence on the cognivite process invloved in motivation.
 Keywords: Affect; Cognition
Trading on Illusions: Unrealistic Perceptions of Control, and Trading Performance 
 Fenton-O'Creevy, Mark  Open U. m.p.fenton-ocreevy@open.ac.uk +44 1628 525157 
 Nicholson, Nigel  London Business School nnicholson@lbs.ac.uk +44 (0)171 2625050 
 Soane, Emma  London Business School esoane@lbs.ac.uk +44 (0)171 262 5050 
 Willman, Paul  London Business School pwillman@lbs.ac.uk +44 (0)171 262 5050 
 This paper examines the impact of illusory control beliefs on the performance of traders in financial instruments. It is argued that the task and environment faced by traders is particularly conducive to the development of illusion of control. A field study of 92 traders tested hypotheses concerning the relationship between illusion of control and trader performance. Propensity to illusion of control was found to have a significant, inverse, association with performance as measured by traders’ self-ratings of profit performance, analytic ability and risk management, managers’ ratings of trader performance and by total remuneration
 Keywords: illusions; control; cognition
The Impact of Positive Illusions on Performance 
 Cannon, Mark D. Vanderbilt U. mark.d.cannon@vanderbilt.edu (615)-354-8768 
 This project identifies and probes a relatively unexplored tension between the research on positive illusions, which suggests that positive illusions enhance performance, and the literature on performance appraisal and learning, which suggests that accurate feedback is essential for enhancing performance. This research takes the position that both positive illusions, and accurate feedback and self-perceptions, can either help or hinder performance depending on the circumstances. This research addresses the question: under what conditions do positive illusions facilitate performance, and under what conditions do positive illusions hurt performance? Two studies examine the impact of positive illusions on performance in the context of problem solving. This project overcomes some of the limitations of previous research on positive illusions by carefully verifying and documenting the illusions that people have in this context. Study 1 demonstrates a set of conditions under which positive illusions hurt performance. Specifically, positive illusions can hurt performance by leading people to the false conclusion that they have achieved their performance objectives and that they have little to gain by exerting additional effort. In this case, participants' performance is enhanced by receiving accurate feedback that challenges their illusions. Study 2 illustrates a set of conditions under which positive illusions facilitate performance. Positive illusions can give people confidence that they can achieve challenging goals, and thus lead them to maintain a high level of performance, whereas receiving accurate feedback discourages them and results in reduced effort.
 Keywords: learning; feedback; motivation
The Effects of Overconfidence on the Performance of Product Introductions: Evidence from an Exploratory Field Study 
 Simon, Mark  Oakland U. Simon@oakland.edu (248)-370-3295 
 Houghton, Susan M. Georgia State U. mgtsmh@langate.gsu.edu (404)-651-1893 
 Savelli, Sonia  Oakland U. Simon@oakland.edu (248) 370-3295 
 Research suggests that managers of product introductions are especially likely to fall prey to the overconfidence bias, that is, they fail to know the limits of their knowledge and treat assumptions based upon unreliable information as facts. Some argue that overconfidence may be detrimental to a firm because it generates misperceptions. Others, however, contend that overconfidence may actually be beneficial because the manager's certainty generates commitment from others, as well as firm action that leads to learning. Yet, to date, no empirical research has explored these issues in the context of introducing products. We, therefore, conducted a longitudinal study of the product introductions of 60 small, young firms in the computer industry. Specifically, we developed competing hypotheses about the relationship between a manager's overconfidence and a product's economic performance using the assumptions underlying two different theoretical perspectives. The planning perspective suggested that overconfidence would decrease the product's success and increase problems related to demand, delays, and technology. In contrast, the enactment perspective led to hypotheses in the opposite directions. Results supported the enactment perspective in that managers with greater overconfidence had greater success and encountered less difficulty during their introductions. Implications of the findings are discussed and future research directions are offered.
 Keywords: Overconfidence; Planning; Product