| To Boldly Go Where No Man Has Gone Before: Integrating Cognitive and Physical Features in Scenario Studies |
| | Heugens, Pursey P. M. A. R. | Erasmus U., Rotterdam | p.heugens@fac.fbk.eur.nl | (++31-10)-408-1843 |
| | Van Oosterhout, Johannes | Erasmus U., Rotterdam | Joosterhout@fac.fbk.eur.nl | (++31-10)-408-1974 |
| | The introduction of scenario techniques has changed the status of
futurology significantly. Thinking about more or less distant futures
is no longer a task for soothsayers and priests, but has become an
established corporate function performed by many. The actual use of
scenario techniques, however, seems to be limited to its cognitive aspects
only. Evidently, the (hidden) assumption here is that organizational
change and inertia primarily concern states of mind, and to a lesser
extent, states of affairs. Furthermore, although there is lively debate
among practitioners and theorists alike on whether or not scenario studies
should include the effects of strategic decisions made by management, it
is commonly assumed that scenario studies can be conducted without taking
the normative involvement of the corporation into account. In this paper,
we propose first to complement the conventional "cognitive" features of
scenario techniques with more "physical" features. The latter basically
involve (organized) processes of "intelligent trial and error". These are:
(1) conducting focussed experiments, (2) deliberately making small
mistakes, (3) external corporate venturing, and (4) contingency training.
Secondly, we argue that scenario studies should depart from strategic
decisions, not from a position detached from any corporate interests. We
develop a typology of scenario studies based on the aforementioned
dimensons of cognitive versus physical features (which we label
"epistemology"), and normative involvement. The paper finishes with a
discussion of the normative implications of the preceding analysis, but
since we do not live in a perfect world, we also discuss some mitigating
contingencies. |
| | Keywords: Scenarios; Planning; Reperception |
| Cognitive/Cause Mapping and Scenarios in Risk Management |
| | Eden, Colin | U. of Strathclyde | colin@mansci.strath.ac.uk | +44 141 553 4142 |
| | Ackermann, Fran | U. of Strathclyde | fran@mansci.strath.ac.uk | +44 141 548 3610 |
| | Williams, Terry | U. of Strathclyde | terry@mansci.strath.ac.uk | +44 141 548 3548 |
| | The use of a Risk Register as a way of understanding and managing risk is relatively common place. Such registers capture risks as a list which identifies the probability of an event occurring and the impact it might have on a project. They miss out the systemicity that exists as each risk event interacts with other events and so produce a scenario. This paper describes, through a specific case, an approach to the development of Risk Scenarios. The approach builds from a method that has been used extensively within the context of strategy making, and combines the principles of cognitive mapping with those of risk management. The approach is now beginning to be used successfully as a part of managing complex aerospace and transportation projects. |
| | Keywords: Risk; Scenarios; Complex Projects |
| Towards a Better Understanding of the Change Journey: A Pilot Study Investigating Managers' Change Implementation Scripts |
| | Morgan, Adam Charles | U. of Technology, Sydney | amorgan@zip.com.au | +612993157717 |
| | Pitsis, Tyrone Stephan | U. of New South Wales | tyronep@agsm.unsw.edu.au | +61299319376 |
| | The purpose of this study was to examine the often neglected micro side of
change implementation. This was examined by focusing on the knowledge
structures managers have regarding the change implementation process.
Using a script recall technique for knowledge elicitation, a sample of
managers and non-managers (used as comparison sample) outlined their
implementation strategy to a hypothetical change scenario. Results from
the management sample revealed the existence of scripted knowledge relating
to the implementation of change. These knowledge structures were
furthermore found to be substantially similar to suggest the presence
of a common change implementation process. Results obtained from the
non-management sample revealed that these individuals also had change
implementation scripts. This scripted knowledge however was found to
be less complex in structure than the management sample. When the two
samples were compared, the results suggested that the management scripts
contained a generic component (which is shared within non-managers) and
a unique component (which has been acquired through experience).
These findings are discussed as providing crucial information regarding
the change implementation process and how this information could be used
by organisations to design more effective change strategies. |
| | Keywords: Implementation; Knowledge; Scripts |
| Crisis Management Plans as Schemas: Analysis and Implications |
| | Krauss, Joann L. | Jacksonville State U. | jkrauss@jsucc.jsu.edu | (256) 782-5272 |
| | Abstract: This study tested the proposition that crisis management plans are schemas which guide the decision-makers' interpretations of a crisis situation and limits the decision-makers' ability to respond to a crisis. A 2 X 2 (treatment x scenario) design was utilized to test the hypotheses derived from the proposition. Findings indicated that individuals who received training in a crisis management plan for a specific crisis performed significantly better in that crisis situation rather than a different or deviate crisis situation. Trained individuals in the crisis situation that matched the plan also performed significantly better than individuals who received no training. There were no significant differences in the different crisis situation between individuals who received training in a crisis management plan and those who did not receive training. These results suggest that a crisis management plan did create a rigid model of a crisis situation that limits decision-makers' abilities to respond to a crisis. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to improve decision-making during a crisis through the development of a flexible model of the crisis situation.
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| | Keywords: Schemas; Crisis Management; Decision-Making |